The WRI states the global crop production to reach 9.2 billion metric tons each year. Two-thirds of them are rainfed and one-third are grown by means of irrigation. About 8 % of rainfed crops are threatened due to strong variations of precipitation throughout the year. Furthermore, with climate change increasing the risk of either droughts or flooding, both can lead to massive crop failures. And 60 % of irrigated crops are subject to high or extremely water stress. Here “water stress” is considered as “high”, if at least 40 % of the local water supply is used to meet demands from farms, industries, power plants and households.
Population growth and rising temperatures lead to increasing water demand
Future increase in global population will strengthen water related risks on food production. According to WRI, the world will need to produce 56 % more food calories in 2050 than it did in 2010 to feed a projected 10 billion people. Additional food calories will be produced by using more water for irrigation: According to data on Aqueduct (the WRI water platform), the demand for water to irrigate crops is projected to rise by 16% by 2050, compared to 2019. Warming temperatures are partially driving this trend. The warmer it is, the thirstier crops become.
Crops most exposed to water risks
Looking at the crops by production volume in tonnes, sugar cane is by far most threatened by water risks. If we look at the crops with the highest proportion of calories for the world’s food supply, maize, wheat and rice are heavily affected. About 75 % of the world’s corn production are currently rainfed and grown predominantly in the United States, China and Brazil. The analysts expect that 40 % more rainfed crops will face unreliable water supplies than in 2020.
About 72 % of the world’s irrigated crops, including sugarcane, rice, wheat, vegetables, cotton and maize, are produced in just 10 countries: China, India, USA, Pakistan, Brazil, Egypt, Mexico, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand.
Recommendations for food production in a water-constrained world
Water stress and uncertain rainfall do not automatically cause a food crisis, say the WRI authors. With the right policies that address the nexus of food production, water management and conservation, businesses and governments can ensure sufficient food production. The policies should follow these strategies:
• Assess water risks and set meaningful targets
• Reduce food loss and waste
• Shift high-meat diets towards less water-intensive foods
• Avoid dedicating land to bioenergy
• Increase water use efficiency
• Invest in nature-based solutions
• Support inclusive water management
