International experts from the states in the Rhine river basin have used the latest climate data to analyse how the discharge of the Rhine and its most important tributaries is likely to develop by 2100.

With its “Rhine 2040” programme entitled “The Rhine and its Catchment – Stainably Managed and Climate-resilient, the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR) has set itself the goal of sustainably developing the Rhine and its river basin and adapting them to the effects of climate change. As part of this program the above mentioned study contains new scenarios based on the 5^th IPCC assessment.  These scenarios form the basis for updating the climate change adaption strategy of the Rhine basin by 2025.

Extreme weather conditions continue to increase

From November to April, the risk of flooding tends to increase. From May to October, droughts are likely to occur more frequently, last longer and be more pronounced. The stabilising influence of glacier and snow melt, which supplies the Rhine with water at this time of year and thus compensates for the lower amounts of precipitation, will continue to decrease until the end of the century. As a result, the Rhine will be more dependent on rain. Regionally, more frequent flash floods are also expected in summer, as seen most recently in July 2021 in the Eifel and the Ardennes, among other places.

In summary, the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes will increase further and faster than assumed ten years ago. As climate change advances, the pressure on the ecosystem of the Rhine will increase, drinking water supplies will become more complicated and shipping will be increasingly restricted. There is therefore an urgent need for action to develop and implement adaptation measures.

Revision of the climate change adaption strategy necessary

The new study serves as an important basis for revising the ICPR’s climate change adaptation strategy. Therefore, a workshop with user groups affected by climate change is planned for spring 2025.

“Based on the facts, we need to take adaptation measures to make the Rhine and its catchment area climate-resilient. With this report and the workshop planned for 2025, we are setting an important step in this direction“, says ICPR President Miriam Haritz speaking on the publication of the report.